I have spent the entirety of this election pouring over polls, updating my model, listening to experts, and developing my election model, and in all honesty I can’t tell you definitively who will win. Today my election model gives Harris a 44% chance of winning and Trump a 53% chance of winning for all practical purposes this is a tie. Kamala Harris will likely win the popular vote but in the United States each state votes for president.
After devoting hours of my life to this election this is my best guess at what Americans will do and what will happen tomorrow.
In Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Arizona will cast its 11 electoral votes for Donald J. Trump. Arizona is as red as the swing states come and despite it flipping in 2020 Arizona has unlike the other swing states seen an influx of republican voters. It’s also a border state meaning Harris’s problems on the border are more prevalent there. McCain Republicans won’t be enough this time. My model gives Arizona the most likely chance at a Trump victory: 80% chance. I predict Donald Trump a narrow Trump win.
In Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Georgia will cast its 16 electoral votes for Donald J. Trump. Much like Arizona Georgia is a historically Republican state and even though it is trending bluer demographically it won’t be enough for Harris. Perhaps the ever-popular Raphael Warnock and/or Stacie Abrams on the ballot alongside Harris would be enough for her to retain the state she won’t be able to be the narrowest of margins. My model gives Harris a mere 31% chance at victory in the state and I concur Kamala D. Harris will lose the state of Georgia.
In Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Michigan will cast its 15 electoral votes for Kamala D. Harris. Michiganders have done well under a democratic trifecta in the state government and the state has been the best for Democrats of the former blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Harris will lose votes amongst Arab-Americans as a result of her position on Israel’s war in Gaza but not enough to hand the election to Trump. My model gives Harris a 61% chance of winning the state and I believe it is correct. Michigan will go to Harris by a similar margin to what Biden won it by in 2020.
In Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Democrats have been fretting over early vote numbers in Nevada and they are correct to do so. Nevada has trended increasingly Republican over the years and like Arizona has absorbed an influx of disaffected republican California transplants. The democratic machine and her ad on the sphere won’t be enough for her to win. My election model currently gives Trump a 57% chance of winning the state and he will do so by the narrowest of margins.
In North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
North Carolina has been the democratic party’s white whale ever since 2008 (the last time they won the state on the presidential level) this year they will finally harpoon North Carolina. Harris’s ability to run up the margin in the research triangle and other heavily blue cities will hand her the election. Despite our model giving Harris a 40% chance of victory I believe that pollsters weighing by recall vote are lowering that chance and that “rogue” pollsters such as the New York Times/Siena College reveal the true state of the race a Harris victory. This is to say nothing of the disastrous campaign of Republican Mark Robinson North Carolina will cast its 16 electoral votes for Kamala D. Harris.
In Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)
Kamala D. Harris will lose the keystone state of Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, I don’t believe Harris has done enough to stop the bleeding amongst minority groups in Philidelphia and increased support in the suburbs will not be enough to compensate. Perhaps picking Walz over Shapiro was a mistake, but I don’t believe so. I don’t think even Shapiro would be able to make up for Harris’s record on fracking or losses in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Trump will win Pennsylvania by the narrowest of margins. This is in accordance with what our model currently predicts: a 52.5% chance of victory for Trump. Pennsylvania will cast its 19 electoral votes for Donald J. Trump.
In Wisconsin (11 electoral votes)
Kamala Harris will buck the trend and win the badger state. Ben Wickler runs the Wisconsin democratic party without flaw unlike the dysfunctional democratic party in Pennsylvania which is part of the reason I predict a Trump victory there. White voters have trended strongly in Harris’s direction and Wisconsin is the whitest of the swing states. Wisconsin will cast its 11 electoral votes for Harris.
So a Trump victory…? Incorrect.
It may seem at this point that Harris has lost the election. Her narrow loss in Pennsylvania prevents a Blue Wall and Omaha victory and her narrow loss in Nevada prevents a Sunbelt victory. However, Anne Selzer and Iowa perhaps have something to say about a Trump win.
Bonus: In Iowa (6 electoral votes)
Iowa will stunningly cast its 6 electoral votes for Kamala D. Harris. Anne Selzer’s Des Moines Register Iowa poll gives Harris a 3-point edge in the state. Selzer’s poll will prove correct as it almost always is. Iowans were protected from Joe Biden’s disastrous campaign by the fact that it wasn’t recognized as a Swing State. Harris’s gains amongst white voters in Iowa will help her and Nikki Haley republicans who liked what they saw in the Iowa caucuses will vote for Harris. A disastrous House controlled by Republicans has fueled Democratic congressional candidates to likely flip two of the four congressional districts. Earlier in this piece I alluded that I thought Walz was a smart Vice-Presidential pick. Walz has delivered on his promise, his folksy Middle Mid-Western charm has thus far secured Wisconsin, the “blue dot” of Omaha for Harris, and love for the Nebraskan native will help flip Iowa blue. Just as Iowa voted twice for the first Black president they will cast their 6 electoral votes for the first Black-South Asia Woman to be president. Putting Harris over the top with 273 electoral votes to Trump’s 265.
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